Posted on insidenu.com:
https://www.insidenu.com/2016/8/23/12618842/defining-success-for-northwesterns-2016-football-season
This expands a bit on a comment I made on the “Wildcat Shootaround: What would you consider a successful season for Northwestern?” post.
Heading into last season, would anyone have thought 10 wins wasn’t a successful season? Yet some of the definitions of success for this season would deem last year unsuccessful. Right off the bat, Zach gives three criteria, and last year met NONE of them.
(Zach’s criteria were: “First, beat Iowa. Second, have no blowout losses. Third, win a bowl game.”)
Success is highly contextual. I graduated in 1994. A winning season back then would have been wildly successful. Three wins in some years felt like a success.
How do we create some context to define success? I built a simple model. I defined success as wins for the season (with no regard for margin of victory, number of games played, strength of schedule, etc). I used a 4-year weighted moving average (40/30/20/10) to give the over/under each season for wins needed to define success (Success Wins). Why four years? It’s the playing length of a standard college career; with a few exceptions, a roster turns over every four years.
I expanded the data set to go back to the start of the Ara Parseghian era; this correlates pretty closely to the formation of the Big Ten.
| Season | Coach | Record | Success Wins | Success? | +/- |
| 1956 | Ara Parseghian | 4-4-1 | 1.4 | yes | 2.6 |
| 1957 | Ara Parseghian | 0-9 | 2.3 | no | -2.3 |
| 1958 | Ara Parseghian | 5-4 | 1.4 | yes | 3.6 |
| 1959 | Ara Parseghian | 6-3 | 2.8 | yes | 3.2 |
| 1960 | Ara Parseghian | 5-4 | 4.3 | yes | 0.7 |
| 1961 | Ara Parseghian | 4-5 | 4.8 | no | -0.8 |
| 1962 | Ara Parseghian | 7-2 | 4.8 | yes | 2.2 |
| 1963 | Ara Parseghian | 5-4 | 5.6 | no | -0.6 |
| 1964 | Alex Agase | 3-6 | 5.4 | no | -2.4 |
| 1965 | Alex Agase | 4-6 | 4.5 | no | -0.5 |
| 1966 | Alex Agase | 3-6-1 | 4.2 | no | -1.2 |
| 1967 | Alex Agase | 3-7 | 3.5 | no | -0.5 |
| 1968 | Alex Agase | 1-9 | 3.2 | no | -2.2 |
| 1969 | Alex Agase | 3-7 | 2.3 | yes | 0.7 |
| 1970 | Alex Agase | 6-4 | 2.4 | yes | 3.6 |
| 1971 | Alex Agase | 7-4 | 3.8 | yes | 3.2 |
| 1972 | Alex Agase | 2-9 | 5.3 | no | -3.3 |
| 1973 | John Pont | 4-7 | 4.4 | no | -0.4 |
| 1974 | John Pont | 3-8 | 4.2 | no | -1.2 |
| 1975 | John Pont | 3-8 | 3.5 | no | -0.5 |
| 1976 | John Pont | 1-10 | 3.1 | no | -2.1 |
| 1977 | John Pont | 1-10 | 2.3 | no | -1.3 |
| 1978 | Rick Venturi | 0-10-1 | 1.6 | no | -1.6 |
| 1979 | Rick Venturi | 1-10 | 0.8 | yes | 0.2 |
| 1980 | Rick Venturi | 0-11 | 0.7 | no | -0.7 |
| 1981 | Dennis Green | 0-11 | 0.4 | no | -0.4 |
| 1982 | Dennis Green | 3-8 | 0.2 | yes | 2.8 |
| 1983 | Dennis Green | 2-9 | 1.3 | yes | 0.7 |
| 1984 | Dennis Green | 2-9 | 1.7 | yes | 0.3 |
| 1985 | Dennis Green | 3-8 | 2 | yes | 1 |
| 1986 | Francis Peay | 4-7 | 2.5 | yes | 1.5 |
| 1987 | Francis Peay | 2-8-1 | 3.1 | no | -1.1 |
| 1988 | Francis Peay | 2-8-1 | 2.8 | no | -0.8 |
| 1989 | Francis Peay | 0-11 | 2.5 | no | -2.5 |
| 1990 | Francis Peay | 2-9 | 1.4 | yes | 0.6 |
| 1991 | Francis Peay | 3-8 | 1.4 | yes | 1.6 |
| 1992 | Gary Barnett | 3-8 | 2 | yes | 1 |
| 1993 | Gary Barnett | 2-9 | 2.5 | no | -0.5 |
| 1994 | Gary Barnett | 3-7-1 | 2.5 | yes | 0.5 |
| 1995 | Gary Barnett | 10-2 | 2.7 | yes | 7.3 |
| 1996 | Gary Barnett | 9-3 | 5.6 | yes | 3.4 |
| 1997 | Gary Barnett | 5-7 | 7.4 | no | -2.4 |
| 1998 | Gary Barnett | 3-9 | 7 | no | -4 |
| 1999 | Randy Walker | 3-8 | 5.5 | no | -2.5 |
| 2000 | Randy Walker | 8-4 | 4 | yes | 4 |
| 2001 | Randy Walker | 4-7 | 5.2 | no | -1.2 |
| 2002 | Randy Walker | 3-9 | 4.9 | no | -1.9 |
| 2003 | Randy Walker | 6-7 | 4.3 | yes | 1.7 |
| 2004 | Randy Walker | 6-6 | 4.9 | yes | 1.1 |
| 2005 | Randy Walker | 7-5 | 5.2 | yes | 1.8 |
| 2006 | Pat Fitzgerald | 4-8 | 6.1 | no | -2.1 |
| 2007 | Pat Fitzgerald | 6-6 | 5.5 | yes | 0.5 |
| 2008 | Pat Fitzgerald | 9-4 | 5.6 | yes | 3.4 |
| 2009 | Pat Fitzgerald | 8-5 | 6.9 | yes | 1.1 |
| 2010 | Pat Fitzgerald | 7-6 | 7.5 | no | -0.5 |
| 2011 | Pat Fitzgerald | 6-7 | 7.6 | no | -1.6 |
| 2012 | Pat Fitzgerald | 10-3 | 7 | yes | 3 |
| 2013 | Pat Fitzgerald | 5-7 | 8 | no | -3 |
| 2014 | Pat Fitzgerald | 5-7 | 6.9 | no | -1.9 |
| 2015 | Pat Fitzgerald | 10-3 | 6.1 | yes | 3.9 |
| 2016 | Pat Fitzgerald | 7.5 |
You get a successful season about half the time. I’m OK with that, though I’d guess some people think that’s too easy a hurdle to clear. But to me it means we’re moving in an overall positive direction, and that’s successful.
The Success Wins for 2016 is 7.5. Seems about right for where we are right now. For the 2016 season, 8 wins = success.
Interesting to note that NU’s high-water mark for Success Wins came after the 2012 season at 8.0. If we win 8 games this year, next year’s mark would be 7.7. But if we win 9 games, it moves to 8.1. We are at or near the peak of the program.
We’re not talking about the low-water mark.
What are our most successful seasons? Here are the top 10.
| Season | Coach | Record | Success Wins | +/- | Rank |
| 1995 | Gary Barnett | 10-2 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 1 |
| 2000 | Randy Walker | 8-4 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 2015 | Pat Fitzgerald | 10-3 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 3 |
| 1958 | Ara Parseghian | 5-4 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 4 |
| 1970 | Alex Agase | 6-4 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 4 |
| 1996 | Gary Barnett | 9-3 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 6 |
| 2008 | Pat Fitzgerald | 9-4 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 6 |
| 1959 | Ara Parseghian | 6-3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 8 |
| 1971 | Alex Agase | 7-4 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 8 |
| 2012 | Pat Fitzgerald | 10-3 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
Our 1995 season may well be the all-time college football most “successful” season by this metric. Feel free to leave a comment with any outlier seasons you can think of for other teams and we’ll see how they compare. Pat Fitzgerald has three of Northwestern’s top 10 seasons since 1956.
We can use this to rank coaches too. What Success Win level did they inherit, and what Success Win level did they leave?
| Coach | Seasons | Start | End | +/- | Rank |
| Ara Parseghian | 1956-63 | 1.4 | 5.4 | 4 | 1 |
| Gary Barnett | 1992-98 | 2 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Dennis Green | 1981-85 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 3 |
| Pat Fitzgerald | 2006- | 6.1 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 4 |
| Randy Walker | 1999-2005 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 0.6 | 5 |
| Francis Peay | 1986-90 | 2.5 | 2 | -0.5 | 6 |
| Rick Venturi | 1978-80 | 1.6 | 0.7 | -0.9 | 7 |
| Alex Agase | 1964-72 | 5.4 | 4.4 | -1 | 8 |
| John Pont | 1973-77 | 4.4 | 1.6 | -2.8 | 9 |
I don’t think anyone would put Dennis Green that high, but given the context of what he inherited, it makes some sense. It gives a lot of credit to Barnett (as it should!) for turning things around and taking us up a few levels. Randy Walker moved it up a bit more, and Pat Fitzgerald has taken the program to its highest point yet. If you ranked coaches by the absolute (not relative) level they achieved, Fitzgerald is #1.
I did notice that after the 2014 season, we were at 6.1, exactly what Fitzgerald inherited. There was a segment of the fan base (at least one person!) who felt we were stuck. Then 2015 got us moving back in a positive direction.
How does this look for B1G play? Our Success Conference Wins for 2016 is 4.0, though that’s based on an 8-game slate. That’s a .500 win percentage for 8 games, so we can convert that to 4.5 wins for the 9-game 2016 slate.
How does every team in the Big Ten look?
| Team | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Rank |
| Ohio State | 12 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12.6 | 1 |
| Michigan State | 7 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11.4 | 2 |
| Wisconsin | 8 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9.9 | 3 |
| Iowa | 4 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 8.9 | 4 |
| Nebraska | 10 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 7.9 | 5 |
| Michigan | 8 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 7.7 | 6 |
| Northwestern | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 7.5 | 7 |
| Penn State | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7.1 | 8 |
| Minnesota | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| Rutgers | 9 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 6.1 | 10 |
| Maryland | 4 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 5.1 | 11 |
| Indiana | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 12 |
| Illinois | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4.8 | 13 |
| Purdue | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | 14 |
Wow, Ohio State. Just win 13 games to be successful! Or, anything short of the playoff is not a successful season. That’s crazy. Michigan seems low, but my model doesn’t know that they hired Jim Harbaugh to replace Brady Hoke. Wisconsin seems high. LOL Illinois. Northwestern’s above average! Seems reasonable for where we are at this point.
TL;DR Success for the 2016 Northwestern football season is 8+ total wins, 5+ conference wins. With 9 wins, the program will be at its best level ever. THE MODEL HAS SPOKEN.