Month: May 2018

LeBron’s had an amazing postseason, reaching his 8th straight NBA Finals. Check this out:

He leads all players in the postseason with 8.4 Estimaged Wins Added (EWA). EWA gives “the estimated number of wins a player adds to a team’s season total above what a ‘replacement player’ would produce.” In other words, while the Cavs are 12-6 so far in the postseason, without Lebron, they’d win just (checks numbers) 3.6 of those 18 games. He has more than double the EWA of the next player on the list, James Harden.

LeBron is the only Cavalier in the top 20. A reserve – Larry Nance Jr – is the next Cavalier at 1.0 EWA (29th place). Houston and Golden State both have three players in the top 20 (Houston has three of the top 5).

I first noticed some discomfort in December a few days before we left on our trip, and by February there was enough swelling that I went to a clinic in Auckland. The diagnosis? I had a direct inguinal hernia. There was no immediate danger, but I would need a surgery to repair it. Travel insurance covered the trip to the clinic for the diagnosis, but it wouldn’t cover the surgery itself. I sent a note to a friend whose wife is a doctor asking whether medical tourism seemed like a good option. The response was yes. It’s a common and low-risk surgery. Knowing our upcoming itinerary, I looked at Mexico and soon settled on Salutaris Medical Center in Guadalajara.

We arrived Wednesday night, and I scheduled some tests for Thursday followed by surgery on Friday. We’re staying a 15-minute walk from the clinic and headed over at 9a on Thursday. We met the surgeon almost immediately. He confirmed the diagnosis, ran vitals (blood pressure, pulse), drew blood for a lab and took a urine sample. He was very confident that I would have a straightforward surgery and seemed relieved at my condition. He made a comment that they’re always a bit nervous about the Americans who schedule remotely since we don’t seem to always present the healthiest candidates. And while Americans may not be the healthiest, we also have a healthcare system that forces unhealthy candidates to seek out alternatives like medical tourism.

We came back at 7a Friday for the surgery. I met the anethesiologist who was under the impression he was meeting a 200 *kilogram* candidate (440 pounds) and not a 200 pound candidate. Something was lost in translation. Perhaps he had to reduce the dosage! Here am I just before being wheeled down to surgery.

They wheeled me in and I guess I expected some warning that the process was beginning but it all just goes suddenly blank. I woke up in recovery – it also seemed very sudden – a bit after 11. A nurse said “todo bien” and I went back under. Leena had returned around 11:40a and I woke up soon after. I was really thirsty and they let me have just a sip of water. That was good, since it almost came back up. I complained about the oxygen mask and that came off about 15 minutes later. I slept for a couple of hours and was then able to sit up, eat lunch, and have some water and juice.

They had me on an IV with fluids and pain meds, so it wasn’t too uncomfortable. By evening I was even able to stand up a walk a bit. I slept pretty well.

I was discharged today (Saturday) after some breakfast and we walked back to our place (slowly) with a stop at the pharmacy for a couple of prescriptions for the next week. The surgery was laparoscopic with three incisions in my lower abdomen. I’m sore and a bit swollen and/or bloated. But it’s not too bad for just a day post-op. I head back on Friday to have stitches removed and we’re planning to head out to the beach for some more recovery time. I should be fully recovered in about three weeks.

Flights from Belize City to just about anywhere were pretty expensive, so we opted for a ferry ride from Caye Caulker to Chetumal ($55 each) followed by a five-hour taxi ride to Cancún ($35 each) where we had booked a cheap flight to Mexico City for the following day. Our flight was scheduled out around 6p and though we were able to stay until early afternoon at our AirBnB, we got to the airport about three hours before the flight ready for some airport lounge time.

Well, good thing we were early! The check-in line was quite long. After 45 minutes, we were second in line. My phone rings, and I answer. It’s the airline informing me that our flight has been cancelled and offering a 125% refund. Well, I tell them that we’re second in line and will handle it at the counter. We get the same offer at the counter – it’s just an offer of money and no other assistance – but don’t take it. They try to book us on an 8p flight and/or a noon flight the next day, but both are full. We find flights with other airlines leaving that night, but we’d need a 200% refund to break even. They won’t budge. So we wait it out. We’re at the counter for over an hour. We were one of the first parties attempting to check in for the flight (again, good thing we were early). Other customers have been taken off to a side area and I believe they were just offered refunds (no attempt to rebook). Finally, we’re somehow given seats on the 8p flight. We head through security and have some food at a lounge before the flight. (We have lounge access in most airports through a credit card offer, and it’s been really great on a number of occasions for free food and drink.) We finally make it to our AirBnB at midnight and thank our host for accommodating our very late check-in.

Mexico City has lots of dogs, and we even found a pig out for a walk.

We found a street market while walking around the first day and got some great aguacates (avocados). Our guacamole game is strong.

Our place was a few blocks from Bosque de Chapultepec, a huge park with avenues, monuments, lakes, and castles to climb.

We took a day trip to Cholula and Puebla. We were in a shared van with seven others. The guide referred to everyone by their home country – Costa Rica, Columbia, Brazil, Guatemala, and Los Estados Unidos. We stopped on the drive out for a break with a view of a volcano.

The guide asked what made Cholula famous, and nobody answered, so I made a guess: hot sauce! He chuckled. No, that’s not it. It’s famous for the largest pyramid in the world. Yes, bigger than Giza. But here’s the thing – it was entirely covered when the Spanish built a church on top of the “hill” in the 16th century. Sections have since been excavated including a massive network of tunnels. We got to go through some of the tunnels. I had to watch my head at all times.

It was 26 steps down to the base.

It was 126 steps to the top.

Here are three shots of the church on top of the pyramid including some of the excavation.

We climbed to the top for a closer look at the church and some great 360 degree views.

We drove from Cholula on to Pueblo for lunch and a tour of the city. It’s famous for its tiles and churches.

A storm moved in just as we departed. We drove home through heavy rain and hail.

We took a short flight on a small plane from Guatemala City to Belize City. There were only three of us on the flight; there were only about a dozen seats. From Belize City we took a water taxi for a 45 minute ride out to Caye Caulker. The motto for Caye Caulker is “Go Slow”. There’s a sign that states: “Go Slow. We have two cemeteries but no hospital. The island is about 7k long and has about 1900 residents. There are no cars, just plenty of golf carts and bicycles. It’s very relaxed.

Our friend Eric came down to join us for a few days. We somehow ended up at a place called “Bambooze”.

Eric and I went on a dive on the third day with a great local shop call Black Durgon. There were just three of us on the dive along with the dive master. It was just 15 minutes out to the reef for our first dive location: the Sand Trap. This spot was all about the reef itself, with awesome corridors to swim down and through. After a break for lunch, the second location (Caye Caulker reef) gave us a close encounter with a giant and evidently very old sea turtle. The turtle passed us by once. A few minutes later, as we were enjoying a green moray eel (totally exposed!), the sea turtle came back around and actually nibbled for a second on one of Eric’s fins. This guy was large and even had a couple of barnacles on his shell. The dive master said he (or she?) was likely 100+ years old.

Dinner that evening had a drink special for the ladies: Cosmopolitans! Eric somehow got one too…

There’s a cave just off Caye Caulker where tarpons hang out. From the dock by the cave:

A couple of days later we all took an all-day snorkel tour. We motored north for about an hour and saw a manatee up close at the first stop. Two remora fish were clinging to it. It just floated along without a care in the world as over a dozen snorkels surrounded it just a few meters away. After a while it went and just laid down on the bottom (perhaps five meters deep).

We also saw a sea turtle there, though less than half the size of the one Eric and I had seen diving.

The second stop was at shark and ray alley and we saw plenty of both. There are just nurse sharks, which are bottom feeders that eat by sucking in sea water and whatever else and filtering out the food. They don’t bite!

We made a third stop at a National Park. It’s pretty cool that they have a National Park out in the ocean for diving and snorkeling! We saw two green moray eels, and one of the guides coaxed the second one out into the open for a good look.

We came upon a small cavern, or tunnel. The guide said that it was five meters down and that we were welcome to free dive through it. I’m always up for these things, so I was the first one down and through. The cavern was FULL of gray snappers, some of them quite big. They scattered just enough that I didn’t run into any, though I thought I might. It was just three or four meters long and I surfaced after I passed through. A few more folks went through and I made a second pass, though the fish had pretty much scattered by that point.

After a long day of snorkeling with an awesome boat full of folks (seriously, there were several other couples also on multi-month or year-long trips), Leena and I posted up at the back of the boat for the ride home.

I guess sunset brings this out…

For the final stretch, we took a small boat to the dock from the snorkel sailboat.

We took a shuttle from Antigua to Panajachel. The shuttles are pretty cheap – about $12 each for a 3-hour ride – but they pack you in there. So we squeezed in for a relatively uncomfortable ride on some twisty and hilly roads. Panajachel is the largest town on Lake Attilán, a beautiful lake in the mountains surrounded by cone-shaped volcanic peaks. The lake sits at about 5000 feet.

We visited the market for some fresh produce. We make lots of guacamole these days.

The main road through Pana ends at the lake.

We took a 5k walk to the next town over, Santa Catarina, and took some pictures along the way.

A couple of shots of Santa Catarina, a vertical town along the lake.

As you head to the lakeshore.

From a dock in Santa Catarina.

After a few days in Pana, we took a 20-minute water taxi ride across the lake to San Pedro la Laguna. We rented an apartment on the third floor of a family’s house. The view from our window:

We spent a week in San Pedro and each took private (1-on-1) Spanish lessons for three hours each day. We even had homework!

The school has “classrooms” which are just a series of palapas along a path to the lake.

From the lakeshore of the school.

Classes were good. I went from jumbles of various words I remembered from four years of high school Spanish classes to some basic sentences, relearned lots of key verbs and conjugations, and even got into verb tenses by the end of the week. Leena minored in Spanish in college, so she’s way ahead of me and got back to a basic level of fluency.

Nike released a T-shirt after LeBron’s second season that said “Witness: 27-7-7”. I wish I could find an image.

The 27-7-7 references his line for points/rebounds/assists that season. Check out his second season versus his current career averages:

          PTS    REB    AST
04-05    27.2    7.4    7.2
Career   27.2    7.4    7.2

He posted a 27.5 – 8.6 – 9.1 for the 17-18 season, all above his career marks and enough to raise his career rebound and assist averages by a tenth each, giving us the exact match to his second season. Seems Nike was right: we knew LeBron by his second season.

LeBron continued his climb on the all-time Career NBA Scoring list during the 2017-18 NBA season. He scored 2251 points to move his career scoring mark to move into the 30k club with 31038 points. There are now seven players in NBA history with 30000+ points:

Player                  Points
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar   38387
2. Karl Malone           36928
3. Kobe Bryant           33643
4. Michael Jordan        32292
5. Wilt Chamberlain      31419
6. Dirk Nowitzki         31187
7. LeBron James          31038

Landing on this list takes a combination of great seasons and longevity. Who has the greatest single season for scoring? It’s Wilt, and it’s not close:

Player                  Points   Year
1. Wilt Chamberlain       4029  61-62
2. Wilt Chamberlain       3586  62-63
3. Michael Jordan         3041  86-87
4. Wilt Chamberlain       3033  60-61
5. Wilt Chamberlain       2948  63-64
6. Michael Jordan         2868  87-88
7. Kobe Bryant            2832  05-06
8. Bob McAdoo             2831  74-75
8. Kareem Abdul-Jabber    2822  71-72
10. Rick Barry            2775  66-67

At his peak, Wilt was easily the best scorer in NBA history, and he’s fifth all-time in career points. But longevity is the other part of the equation, and that’s where Kareem sets the bar. He played for 20 seasons, scoring 748 points in his last season – his age 41 season.

Let’s stack the 30k scorers’ seasons from top to bottom from most to least points.

  Jabbar Malone Bryant Jordan   Wilt   Dirk LeBron
1.  2822   2540   2832   3041   4029   2151   2478
2.  2596   2382   2461   2868   3586   2094   2304
3.  2361   2326   2430   2753   3033   2032   2258
4.  2292   2272   2323   2633   2948   2027   2251
5.  2275   2268   2201   2580   2707   2011   2250
6.  2191   2249   2133   2541   2649   1916   2175
7.  2152   2217   2078   2491   2534   1817   2132
8.  2095   2190   2019   2431   1992   1784   2111
9.  2034   2187   1970   2404   1956   1779   2089
10. 1949   2106   1938   2357   1696   1735   2036
11. 1903   2095   1819   2313   1664   1681   1954
12. 1846   2063   1616   1640   1213   1680   1920
13. 1818   1878   1557   1375   1084   1435   1743
14. 1725   1788   1485    457    328   1372   1683
15. 1722   1779   1220    408          1342   1654
16. 1717   1667   1161      0          1333
17. 1600   1203    996      0           927
18. 1366   1164    782      0           917
19. 1165    554    539      0           769
20.  748            83                  385

I like the way this shows the differences in peak seasons and longevity for the group. Wilt has the best #1 season, the best #2 season, … and so on through the best #7 season. Jordan takes over with the best #8 season through the best #11 season. Karl Malone has the best #12 through #15 seasons. Kareem finally takes the baton with the best #16 through #20 seasons.

(Note: I included four 0-point seasons for Jordan since he had four season-long sabbaticals/retirements during his career.)

Playing a long time and lots of games is really important, but so is the age at which you started. Kareem and Malone started after full college careers while Kobe and LeBron jumped straight from high school. Let’s look at points by age season:

   Jabbar Malone Bryant Jordan   Wilt   Dirk LeBron
18.                 539
19.                1220                        1654
20.                 996                  385   2175
21.                1485   2313          1435   2478
22.  2361   1203   1938    408          1784   2132
23.  2596   1779   2019   3041   2707   1779   2250
24.  2822   2268   2461   2868   3033   2011   2304
25.  2292   2326   1557   2633   4029   1680   2258
26.  2191   2540   1819   2753   3586   2032   2111
27.  1949   2382   2832   2580   2948   2151   1683
28.  2275   2272   2430   2404   2534   1916   2036
29.  2152   2217   2323   2541   2649   1817   2089
30.  1600   2063   2201      0   1956   2094   1743
31.  1903   2187   1970    457   1992   2027   1920
32.  2034   2106   2078   2491   1664   1681   1954
33.  2095   2249   1616   2431    328   1342   2251
34.  1818   2190   2133   2357   1696    917
35.  1722   1164     83      0   1213   1735
36.  1717   2095    782      0   1084   1333
37.  1735   1878   1161      0          1372
38.  1846   1788          1375           769
39.  1366   1677          1640           927
40.  1165    554
41.   748

There’s a lot to digest here. The early age seasons for Kobe and Lebron give them an enormous head start on the pack. Wilt’s short career shows why the best per-season scorer at his peak lands at fifth all-time. Jordan’s two sabbaticals keep him at fourth on the list. Kobe’s late-career Achilles injury (he lost almost his entire age 35 season) and relatively early retirement leave him third on the list despite his early-career head start. As much as anyone in the club, Dirk shows the importance of longevity. He never led the league in points in a season, but an early start and a long career of consistently good seasons pushed him over 30k points. Kareem and Malone set the standard for late-career productivity (on top of remarkably productive and consistent careers) and land in the top two spots.

Let’s look at cumulative career points by the player’s age each season:

   Jabbar Malone Bryant  Jordan  Wilt   Dirk LeBron
18.                 539
19.                1759                        1654
20.                2755                  385   3829
21.                4240   2313          1820   6307
22.  2361   1203   6178   2721          3604   8439
23.  4957   2982   8197   5762   2707   5383  10689
24.  7779   5250  10658   8630   5740   7394  12993
25. 10071   7576  12215  11263   9769   9074  15251
26. 12262  10116  14034  14016  13355  11106  17362
27. 14211  12498  16866  16596  16303  13257  19045
28. 16486  14770  19296  19000  18837  15173  21081
29. 18638  16987  21619  21541  21486  16990  23170
30. 20238  19050  23820  21541  23442  19084  24913
31. 22141  21237  25790  21998  25434  21111  26833
32. 24175  23343  27868  24489  27098  22792  28787
33. 26270  25592  29484  26920  27426  24134  31038
34. 28088  27782  31617  29277  29122  25051
35. 29810  28946  31700  29277  30335  26786
36. 31527  31041  32482  29277  31419  28119
37. 33262  32919  33643  29277         29491
38. 35108  34707         30652         30260
39. 36474  36374         32292         31187
40. 37639  36928
41. 38387

The head starts for Kobe and LeBron? They’re 4240 and 6307 (!) points ahead by the time Kareem and Malone start their careers. Kobe scored the most points in an Age 18 season in NBA history, and his 1759 points through his Age 19 season are also tops in NBA history. LeBron then takes over, leading the NBA in total points through each Age season from Age 20 through his most recently completed Age 33 season. Though Kareem was better from Age 22 through Age 33, it only reduced LeBron’s lead from 6307 points to 4768 points.

At Age 33, LeBron just recorded 2251 points for the season, the 4th-most points he’s scored in a single season. Barring injury, a sabbatical (a la Jordan), or early retirement, he looks likely to eventually surpass 40k career points. If he were to match the rest of Kareem’s career, he’d surpass 43k points; by matching the rest of Malone’s career, he’d surpass 42k points. Both are unlikely – he’s have to match the two most productive late-career players in NBA history. Then again, he’s set a historic pace throughout his career and reportedly spends over $1 million per year (!) caring for his body.

What about players who don’t yet have 30k career points, but are “on pace” to join the 30k club and perhaps one day vie for the NBA career scoring lead?

I used the following criteria to define the necessary pace: more than 1600 * (Age-19) points. This means I start the clock with the Age 20 season, and set the threshold rate at roughly 20 points per game (80 games at 20 points per game = 1600 points in a season). Yes, it’s simplistic, and career scoring generally follows an arc. But I don’t have a complete database so this will do. I’m fairly certain the following active players are the complete list that meet the criteria (listed from most to least career points):

                                Current    Current
Player                   Points     Age  Threshold
1. Carmelo Anthony        25417      33      22400
2. Kevin Durant           20913      29      16000
3. Russell Westbrook      17184      29      16000
4. James Harden           15809      28      14400
5. Anthony Davis           9607      25       9600
6. Giannis Antentokounmpo  6751      23       6400
7. Andrew Wiggins          6447      23       6400
8. Karl-Anthony Towns      5307      22       4800

Let’s see how the top five are tracking (cumulative points by age season):

  Carmelo  Durant    Russ  Harden   Davis
19.  1725    1624
20.  3283    3495    1256     753     867
21.  5405    5967    2578    1751    2261
22.  7286    8128    4371    2795    3917
23.  9264    9978    5929    4818    5398
24. 10768   12258    7832    6669    7497
25. 12711   14851    8834    8886    9607
26. 14681   15537   10720   11262
27. 15926   17566   12598   13618
28. 17846   19121   15156   15809
29. 19958   20913   17184
30. 20924
31. 22947
32. 24156
33. 25417

Carmelo had his worst year ever in terms of points per game in 2017-18 at just 16.2 after moving to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Barring a strong resurgence, I think he’ll fall just short of the 30k career mark.

Kevin Durant tracked very close to Lebron’s pace before an injury limited his Age 26 season to just 27 games. He’s currently over 2100 points behind Lebron’s pace through Age 29. In other words, he’s one very good season behind. He’s in the middle of the pack if you compare him to the 30k club through their respective Age 29 seasons.

Russell Westbrook jumped above the threshold pace after becoming the alpha dog in Oklahoma City when Durant moved to Golden State. He notched a league-leading 2558 points during his MVP 16-17 season and added another 2028 points in 17-18. He’s ahead of the pace of two members of the 30k club at age 29 (Malone and Dirk).

James Harden is now tracking slightly ahead of Russ’ pace while one year younger, though through their respective Age 22 seasons he was over 1600 points behind Russ. He’s the likely 17-18 NBA MVP and led the league in points per game last season.

Anthony Davis notched 2099 points in 16-17 and another 2110 in 17-18 to move above the threshold pace by just 7 points. He’s battled injuries in his career, but when he’s on the court, he scores plenty.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has the third-most points through the Age 23 season for this group and looks likely to be a future MVP. But it’s very difficult to project the career totals for such a young player.

Andrew Wiggins fell from 1933 points in his Age 22 season to just 1452 points in his Age 23 season (while playing all 82 games both seasons). He’s just 47 points ahead of the threshold and seems likely to fall below it in the next few seasons.

Karl-Anthony Towns also experienced a drop in productivity last season, from 2061 points in his Age 21 season to 1743 points in his Age 22 season (also while playing all 82 games both seasons). However, he has the 3rd-most points through his Age 22 season among this group.