LeBron continued his climb on the all-time Career NBA Scoring list during the 2017-18 NBA season. He scored 2251 points to move his career scoring mark to move into the 30k club with 31038 points. There are now seven players in NBA history with 30000+ points:
Player Points 1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 38387 2. Karl Malone 36928 3. Kobe Bryant 33643 4. Michael Jordan 32292 5. Wilt Chamberlain 31419 6. Dirk Nowitzki 31187 7. LeBron James 31038
Landing on this list takes a combination of great seasons and longevity. Who has the greatest single season for scoring? It’s Wilt, and it’s not close:
Player Points Year 1. Wilt Chamberlain 4029 61-62 2. Wilt Chamberlain 3586 62-63 3. Michael Jordan 3041 86-87 4. Wilt Chamberlain 3033 60-61 5. Wilt Chamberlain 2948 63-64 6. Michael Jordan 2868 87-88 7. Kobe Bryant 2832 05-06 8. Bob McAdoo 2831 74-75 8. Kareem Abdul-Jabber 2822 71-72 10. Rick Barry 2775 66-67
At his peak, Wilt was easily the best scorer in NBA history, and he’s fifth all-time in career points. But longevity is the other part of the equation, and that’s where Kareem sets the bar. He played for 20 seasons, scoring 748 points in his last season – his age 41 season.
Let’s stack the 30k scorers’ seasons from top to bottom from most to least points.
Jabbar Malone Bryant Jordan Wilt Dirk LeBron 1. 2822 2540 2832 3041 4029 2151 2478 2. 2596 2382 2461 2868 3586 2094 2304 3. 2361 2326 2430 2753 3033 2032 2258 4. 2292 2272 2323 2633 2948 2027 2251 5. 2275 2268 2201 2580 2707 2011 2250 6. 2191 2249 2133 2541 2649 1916 2175 7. 2152 2217 2078 2491 2534 1817 2132 8. 2095 2190 2019 2431 1992 1784 2111 9. 2034 2187 1970 2404 1956 1779 2089 10. 1949 2106 1938 2357 1696 1735 2036 11. 1903 2095 1819 2313 1664 1681 1954 12. 1846 2063 1616 1640 1213 1680 1920 13. 1818 1878 1557 1375 1084 1435 1743 14. 1725 1788 1485 457 328 1372 1683 15. 1722 1779 1220 408 1342 1654 16. 1717 1667 1161 0 1333 17. 1600 1203 996 0 927 18. 1366 1164 782 0 917 19. 1165 554 539 0 769 20. 748 83 385
I like the way this shows the differences in peak seasons and longevity for the group. Wilt has the best #1 season, the best #2 season, … and so on through the best #7 season. Jordan takes over with the best #8 season through the best #11 season. Karl Malone has the best #12 through #15 seasons. Kareem finally takes the baton with the best #16 through #20 seasons.
(Note: I included four 0-point seasons for Jordan since he had four season-long sabbaticals/retirements during his career.)
Playing a long time and lots of games is really important, but so is the age at which you started. Kareem and Malone started after full college careers while Kobe and LeBron jumped straight from high school. Let’s look at points by age season:
Jabbar Malone Bryant Jordan Wilt Dirk LeBron 18. 539 19. 1220 1654 20. 996 385 2175 21. 1485 2313 1435 2478 22. 2361 1203 1938 408 1784 2132 23. 2596 1779 2019 3041 2707 1779 2250 24. 2822 2268 2461 2868 3033 2011 2304 25. 2292 2326 1557 2633 4029 1680 2258 26. 2191 2540 1819 2753 3586 2032 2111 27. 1949 2382 2832 2580 2948 2151 1683 28. 2275 2272 2430 2404 2534 1916 2036 29. 2152 2217 2323 2541 2649 1817 2089 30. 1600 2063 2201 0 1956 2094 1743 31. 1903 2187 1970 457 1992 2027 1920 32. 2034 2106 2078 2491 1664 1681 1954 33. 2095 2249 1616 2431 328 1342 2251 34. 1818 2190 2133 2357 1696 917 35. 1722 1164 83 0 1213 1735 36. 1717 2095 782 0 1084 1333 37. 1735 1878 1161 0 1372 38. 1846 1788 1375 769 39. 1366 1677 1640 927 40. 1165 554 41. 748
There’s a lot to digest here. The early age seasons for Kobe and Lebron give them an enormous head start on the pack. Wilt’s short career shows why the best per-season scorer at his peak lands at fifth all-time. Jordan’s two sabbaticals keep him at fourth on the list. Kobe’s late-career Achilles injury (he lost almost his entire age 35 season) and relatively early retirement leave him third on the list despite his early-career head start. As much as anyone in the club, Dirk shows the importance of longevity. He never led the league in points in a season, but an early start and a long career of consistently good seasons pushed him over 30k points. Kareem and Malone set the standard for late-career productivity (on top of remarkably productive and consistent careers) and land in the top two spots.
Let’s look at cumulative career points by the player’s age each season:
Jabbar Malone Bryant Jordan Wilt Dirk LeBron 18. 539 19. 1759 1654 20. 2755 385 3829 21. 4240 2313 1820 6307 22. 2361 1203 6178 2721 3604 8439 23. 4957 2982 8197 5762 2707 5383 10689 24. 7779 5250 10658 8630 5740 7394 12993 25. 10071 7576 12215 11263 9769 9074 15251 26. 12262 10116 14034 14016 13355 11106 17362 27. 14211 12498 16866 16596 16303 13257 19045 28. 16486 14770 19296 19000 18837 15173 21081 29. 18638 16987 21619 21541 21486 16990 23170 30. 20238 19050 23820 21541 23442 19084 24913 31. 22141 21237 25790 21998 25434 21111 26833 32. 24175 23343 27868 24489 27098 22792 28787 33. 26270 25592 29484 26920 27426 24134 31038 34. 28088 27782 31617 29277 29122 25051 35. 29810 28946 31700 29277 30335 26786 36. 31527 31041 32482 29277 31419 28119 37. 33262 32919 33643 29277 29491 38. 35108 34707 30652 30260 39. 36474 36374 32292 31187 40. 37639 36928 41. 38387
The head starts for Kobe and LeBron? They’re 4240 and 6307 (!) points ahead by the time Kareem and Malone start their careers. Kobe scored the most points in an Age 18 season in NBA history, and his 1759 points through his Age 19 season are also tops in NBA history. LeBron then takes over, leading the NBA in total points through each Age season from Age 20 through his most recently completed Age 33 season. Though Kareem was better from Age 22 through Age 33, it only reduced LeBron’s lead from 6307 points to 4768 points.
At Age 33, LeBron just recorded 2251 points for the season, the 4th-most points he’s scored in a single season. Barring injury, a sabbatical (a la Jordan), or early retirement, he looks likely to eventually surpass 40k career points. If he were to match the rest of Kareem’s career, he’d surpass 43k points; by matching the rest of Malone’s career, he’d surpass 42k points. Both are unlikely – he’s have to match the two most productive late-career players in NBA history. Then again, he’s set a historic pace throughout his career and reportedly spends over $1 million per year (!) caring for his body.
What about players who don’t yet have 30k career points, but are “on pace” to join the 30k club and perhaps one day vie for the NBA career scoring lead?
I used the following criteria to define the necessary pace: more than 1600 * (Age-19) points. This means I start the clock with the Age 20 season, and set the threshold rate at roughly 20 points per game (80 games at 20 points per game = 1600 points in a season). Yes, it’s simplistic, and career scoring generally follows an arc. But I don’t have a complete database so this will do. I’m fairly certain the following active players are the complete list that meet the criteria (listed from most to least career points):
Current Current Player Points Age Threshold 1. Carmelo Anthony 25417 33 22400 2. Kevin Durant 20913 29 16000 3. Russell Westbrook 17184 29 16000 4. James Harden 15809 28 14400 5. Anthony Davis 9607 25 9600 6. Giannis Antentokounmpo 6751 23 6400 7. Andrew Wiggins 6447 23 6400 8. Karl-Anthony Towns 5307 22 4800
Let’s see how the top five are tracking (cumulative points by age season):
Carmelo Durant Russ Harden Davis 19. 1725 1624 20. 3283 3495 1256 753 867 21. 5405 5967 2578 1751 2261 22. 7286 8128 4371 2795 3917 23. 9264 9978 5929 4818 5398 24. 10768 12258 7832 6669 7497 25. 12711 14851 8834 8886 9607 26. 14681 15537 10720 11262 27. 15926 17566 12598 13618 28. 17846 19121 15156 15809 29. 19958 20913 17184 30. 20924 31. 22947 32. 24156 33. 25417
Carmelo had his worst year ever in terms of points per game in 2017-18 at just 16.2 after moving to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Barring a strong resurgence, I think he’ll fall just short of the 30k career mark.
Kevin Durant tracked very close to Lebron’s pace before an injury limited his Age 26 season to just 27 games. He’s currently over 2100 points behind Lebron’s pace through Age 29. In other words, he’s one very good season behind. He’s in the middle of the pack if you compare him to the 30k club through their respective Age 29 seasons.
Russell Westbrook jumped above the threshold pace after becoming the alpha dog in Oklahoma City when Durant moved to Golden State. He notched a league-leading 2558 points during his MVP 16-17 season and added another 2028 points in 17-18. He’s ahead of the pace of two members of the 30k club at age 29 (Malone and Dirk).
James Harden is now tracking slightly ahead of Russ’ pace while one year younger, though through their respective Age 22 seasons he was over 1600 points behind Russ. He’s the likely 17-18 NBA MVP and led the league in points per game last season.
Anthony Davis notched 2099 points in 16-17 and another 2110 in 17-18 to move above the threshold pace by just 7 points. He’s battled injuries in his career, but when he’s on the court, he scores plenty.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has the third-most points through the Age 23 season for this group and looks likely to be a future MVP. But it’s very difficult to project the career totals for such a young player.
Andrew Wiggins fell from 1933 points in his Age 22 season to just 1452 points in his Age 23 season (while playing all 82 games both seasons). He’s just 47 points ahead of the threshold and seems likely to fall below it in the next few seasons.
Karl-Anthony Towns also experienced a drop in productivity last season, from 2061 points in his Age 21 season to 1743 points in his Age 22 season (also while playing all 82 games both seasons). However, he has the 3rd-most points through his Age 22 season among this group.