LeBron Chasing .500

LeBron James is approaching a .500 career FG%. This is remarkable considering how far from .500 he was at one point in his career.

I have game-by-game data (not shot-by-shot). Let’s start with:

  • He was last above .500 after two career games (20 for 37). Warning: small sample size!
  • His lowest career shooting shooting % came through 20 career games (.3988)

Here’s how his career FG% has progressed game by game.

But I would not consider game 20 with a .399 FG% to be his career low point relative to shooting .500. Far from it! A 40% shooter through just 20 games is much closer to .500 than a 47% shooter through 500 games (on a similar volume of shots/game). Here’s how I measure how “close” a player is to a .500 shooting percentage. Look at each game by shots above/below .500 (e.g. 12 for 20 is two shots above .500; 6 for 17 is 2.5 shots below .500). I’ll call this “.500 FG% +/-” or simply “+/-” for short.

By this measure we can evaluate each game:

  • Best game: +6 (13 for 14 in career game 734)
  • Worst game: -7 (3 for 20 in career game 140)

We can also measure how far above or below .500 a player is by +/- after each game. While LeBron was at his lowest career shooting percentage through 20 games, his +/- was only -32.5 at that point. He’d need to make 65 consecutive shots to get back to .500. When we look at his cumulative career +/- after each game, we find:

  • Highest career +/-: +2 (after game 1 – warning small sample size!)
  • Lowest career +/-: -309 (after game 591)

At that point, he needed to make 618 consecutive shots to get to .500. That’s much further away than 65 shots! I doubt any NBA player has ever dug out of such a big hole to become a .500 FG% shooter. (This could be a fun study for folks with the data – I’m looking at you STATS guys…)

Take a look at each season and his career +/- at the end of each season:

                            Career  Career
Season FGM  FGA  FG%  +/-     FG%     +/-
03-04  622 1492 .417 -124    .417    -124
04-05  795 1684 .472 - 47    .446    -171
05-06  875 1823 .480 - 36.5  .458    -207.5
06-07  772 1621 .476 - 38.5  .463    -246
07-08  794 1642 .484 - 27    .467    -273
08-09  789 1613 .489 - 17.5  .471    -290.5
09-10  768 1528 .503 +  4    .475    -286.5
10-11  758 1485 .510 + 15.5  .479    -271
11-12  621 1169 .531 + 36.5  .483    -234.5
12-13  765 1354 .565 + 88    .490    -146.5
13-14  767 1353 .567 + 90.5  .497    - 56
14-15  624 1279 .488 - 15.5  .496    - 71.5
15-16  737 1416 .520 + 29    .498    - 42.5
16-17  462  868 .532 + 28    .499    - 14.5

Though it looks like the low point of -309 came in 08-09 or 09-10, it actually came after a 7-24 performance in the 43rd game of 10-11 season. He was much better in the second half of that season.

Here’s how his career FG .500 +/- has progressed game by game.

First of all, the turnaround after the low point during the 10-11 season is really dramatic. Lebron was remarkably efficient over the next three and a half seasons.

After 13-14, it looked like he’d get to .500 in the second half of 14-15. But with a new team, new coach and new teammates, LeBron took a step back in 14-15. At that point, I figured he’d never make it; the aging process means his shooting efficiency is bound to fall off at some point. But he got back on the plus side of the ledger in 15-16, and has been even better so far in 16-17.

He is currently the closest he’s been to .500 by +/- since career game 13 (-12). He’s -14.5 with a career mark of .4993. With 8 consecutive makes he’ll move above .4995 which rounds to .500. But he needs 29 consecutive makes to truly get to .500.

How long will it take? Well, he’s made up 14.5 shots in just his last 9 games going a torrid 94 for 159. It certainly looks like he’ll get there before the end of the season.

UPDATE: LeBron finished the 16-17 season as a career .501 shooter. Here are the numbers through the end of the season:

UPDATE: LeBron finished the 17-18 season as a career .504 shooter.

                              Career  Career
Season   FGM  FGA  FG%  +/-     FG%     +/-
03-04    622  1492 .417 -124    .417    -124
04-05    795  1684 .472 - 47    .446    -171
05-06    875  1823 .480 - 36.5  .458    -207.5
06-07    772  1621 .476 - 38.5  .463    -246
07-08    794  1642 .484 - 27    .467    -273
08-09    789  1613 .489 - 17.5  .471    -290.5
09-10    768  1528 .503 +  4    .475    -286.5
10-11    758  1485 .510 + 15.5  .479    -271
11-12    621  1169 .531 + 36.5  .483    -234.5
12-13    765  1354 .565 + 88    .490    -146.5
13-14    767  1353 .567 + 90.5  .497    - 56
14-15    624  1279 .488 - 15.5  .496    - 71.5
15-16    737  1416 .520 + 29    .498    - 42.5
16-17    736  1344 .548 + 64    .501    + 22.5
17-18    857  1580 .542 + 67    .504    + 89.5

Defining “success” for Northwestern’s 2016 football season

Posted on insidenu.com:
https://www.insidenu.com/2016/8/23/12618842/defining-success-for-northwesterns-2016-football-season

This expands a bit on a comment I made on the “Wildcat Shootaround: What would you consider a successful season for Northwestern?” post.

Heading into last season, would anyone have thought 10 wins wasn’t a successful season? Yet some of the definitions of success for this season would deem last year unsuccessful. Right off the bat, Zach gives three criteria, and last year met NONE of them.

(Zach’s criteria were: “First, beat Iowa. Second, have no blowout losses. Third, win a bowl game.”)

Success is highly contextual. I graduated in 1994. A winning season back then would have been wildly successful. Three wins in some years felt like a success.

How do we create some context to define success? I built a simple model. I defined success as wins for the season (with no regard for margin of victory, number of games played, strength of schedule, etc). I used a 4-year weighted moving average (40/30/20/10) to give the over/under each season for wins needed to define success (Success Wins). Why four years? It’s the playing length of a standard college career; with a few exceptions, a roster turns over every four years.

I expanded the data set to go back to the start of the Ara Parseghian era; this correlates pretty closely to the formation of the Big Ten.

Season Coach Record Success Wins Success? +/-
1956 Ara Parseghian 4-4-1 1.4 yes 2.6
1957 Ara Parseghian 0-9 2.3 no -2.3
1958 Ara Parseghian 5-4 1.4 yes 3.6
1959 Ara Parseghian 6-3 2.8 yes 3.2
1960 Ara Parseghian 5-4 4.3 yes 0.7
1961 Ara Parseghian 4-5 4.8 no -0.8
1962 Ara Parseghian 7-2 4.8 yes 2.2
1963 Ara Parseghian 5-4 5.6 no -0.6
1964 Alex Agase 3-6 5.4 no -2.4
1965 Alex Agase 4-6 4.5 no -0.5
1966 Alex Agase 3-6-1 4.2 no -1.2
1967 Alex Agase 3-7 3.5 no -0.5
1968 Alex Agase 1-9 3.2 no -2.2
1969 Alex Agase 3-7 2.3 yes 0.7
1970 Alex Agase 6-4 2.4 yes 3.6
1971 Alex Agase 7-4 3.8 yes 3.2
1972 Alex Agase 2-9 5.3 no -3.3
1973 John Pont 4-7 4.4 no -0.4
1974 John Pont 3-8 4.2 no -1.2
1975 John Pont 3-8 3.5 no -0.5
1976 John Pont 1-10 3.1 no -2.1
1977 John Pont 1-10 2.3 no -1.3
1978 Rick Venturi 0-10-1 1.6 no -1.6
1979 Rick Venturi 1-10 0.8 yes 0.2
1980 Rick Venturi 0-11 0.7 no -0.7
1981 Dennis Green 0-11 0.4 no -0.4
1982 Dennis Green 3-8 0.2 yes 2.8
1983 Dennis Green 2-9 1.3 yes 0.7
1984 Dennis Green 2-9 1.7 yes 0.3
1985 Dennis Green 3-8 2 yes 1
1986 Francis Peay 4-7 2.5 yes 1.5
1987 Francis Peay 2-8-1 3.1 no -1.1
1988 Francis Peay 2-8-1 2.8 no -0.8
1989 Francis Peay 0-11 2.5 no -2.5
1990 Francis Peay 2-9 1.4 yes 0.6
1991 Francis Peay 3-8 1.4 yes 1.6
1992 Gary Barnett 3-8 2 yes 1
1993 Gary Barnett 2-9 2.5 no -0.5
1994 Gary Barnett 3-7-1 2.5 yes 0.5
1995 Gary Barnett 10-2 2.7 yes 7.3
1996 Gary Barnett 9-3 5.6 yes 3.4
1997 Gary Barnett 5-7 7.4 no -2.4
1998 Gary Barnett 3-9 7 no -4
1999 Randy Walker 3-8 5.5 no -2.5
2000 Randy Walker 8-4 4 yes 4
2001 Randy Walker 4-7 5.2 no -1.2
2002 Randy Walker 3-9 4.9 no -1.9
2003 Randy Walker 6-7 4.3 yes 1.7
2004 Randy Walker 6-6 4.9 yes 1.1
2005 Randy Walker 7-5 5.2 yes 1.8
2006 Pat Fitzgerald 4-8 6.1 no -2.1
2007 Pat Fitzgerald 6-6 5.5 yes 0.5
2008 Pat Fitzgerald 9-4 5.6 yes 3.4
2009 Pat Fitzgerald 8-5 6.9 yes 1.1
2010 Pat Fitzgerald 7-6 7.5 no -0.5
2011 Pat Fitzgerald 6-7 7.6 no -1.6
2012 Pat Fitzgerald 10-3 7 yes 3
2013 Pat Fitzgerald 5-7 8 no -3
2014 Pat Fitzgerald 5-7 6.9 no -1.9
2015 Pat Fitzgerald 10-3 6.1 yes 3.9
2016 Pat Fitzgerald 7.5

You get a successful season about half the time. I’m OK with that, though I’d guess some people think that’s too easy a hurdle to clear. But to me it means we’re moving in an overall positive direction, and that’s successful.

The Success Wins for 2016 is 7.5. Seems about right for where we are right now. For the 2016 season, 8 wins = success.

Interesting to note that NU’s high-water mark for Success Wins came after the 2012 season at 8.0. If we win 8 games this year, next year’s mark would be 7.7. But if we win 9 games, it moves to 8.1. We are at or near the peak of the program.

We’re not talking about the low-water mark.

What are our most successful seasons? Here are the top 10.

Season Coach Record Success Wins +/- Rank
1995 Gary Barnett 10-2 2.7 7.3 1
2000 Randy Walker 8-4 4 4 2
2015 Pat Fitzgerald 10-3 6.1 3.9 3
1958 Ara Parseghian 5-4 1.4 3.6 4
1970 Alex Agase 6-4 2.4 3.6 4
1996 Gary Barnett 9-3 5.6 3.4 6
2008 Pat Fitzgerald 9-4 5.6 3.4 6
1959 Ara Parseghian 6-3 2.8 3.2 8
1971 Alex Agase 7-4 3.8 3.2 8
2012 Pat Fitzgerald 10-3 7 3 10

Our 1995 season may well be the all-time college football most “successful” season by this metric. Feel free to leave a comment with any outlier seasons you can think of for other teams and we’ll see how they compare. Pat Fitzgerald has three of Northwestern’s top 10 seasons since 1956.

We can use this to rank coaches too. What Success Win level did they inherit, and what Success Win level did they leave?

Coach Seasons Start End +/- Rank
Ara Parseghian 1956-63 1.4 5.4 4 1
Gary Barnett 1992-98 2 5.5 3.5 2
Dennis Green 1981-85 0.7 2.5 1.8 3
Pat Fitzgerald 2006- 6.1 7.5 1.4 4
Randy Walker 1999-2005 5.5 6.1 0.6 5
Francis Peay 1986-90 2.5 2 -0.5 6
Rick Venturi 1978-80 1.6 0.7 -0.9 7
Alex Agase 1964-72 5.4 4.4 -1 8
John Pont 1973-77 4.4 1.6 -2.8 9

I don’t think anyone would put Dennis Green that high, but given the context of what he inherited, it makes some sense. It gives a lot of credit to Barnett (as it should!) for turning things around and taking us up a few levels. Randy Walker moved it up a bit more, and Pat Fitzgerald has taken the program to its highest point yet. If you ranked coaches by the absolute (not relative) level they achieved, Fitzgerald is #1.

I did notice that after the 2014 season, we were at 6.1, exactly what Fitzgerald inherited. There was a segment of the fan base (at least one person!) who felt we were stuck. Then 2015 got us moving back in a positive direction.

How does this look for B1G play? Our Success Conference Wins for 2016 is 4.0, though that’s based on an 8-game slate. That’s a .500 win percentage for 8 games, so we can convert that to 4.5 wins for the 9-game 2016 slate.

How does every team in the Big Ten look?

Team 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Rank
Ohio State 12 12 14 12 12.6 1
Michigan State 7 13 11 12 11.4 2
Wisconsin 8 9 11 10 9.9 3
Iowa 4 8 7 12 8.9 4
Nebraska 10 9 9 6 7.9 5
Michigan 8 7 5 10 7.7 6
Northwestern 10 5 5 10 7.5 7
Penn State 8 7 7 7 7.1 8
Minnesota 6 8 8 6 7 9
Rutgers 9 6 8 4 6.1 10
Maryland 4 7 7 3 5.1 11
Indiana 4 5 4 6 5 12
Illinois 2 4 6 5 4.8 13
Purdue 6 1 3 2 2.5 14

Wow, Ohio State. Just win 13 games to be successful! Or, anything short of the playoff is not a successful season. That’s crazy. Michigan seems low, but my model doesn’t know that they hired Jim Harbaugh to replace Brady Hoke. Wisconsin seems high. LOL Illinois. Northwestern’s above average! Seems reasonable for where we are at this point.

TL;DR Success for the 2016 Northwestern football season is 8+ total wins, 5+ conference wins. With 9 wins, the program will be at its best level ever. THE MODEL HAS SPOKEN.

Goodbye Milo

Today we say goodbye to the sweetest beagle ever, Milo Faust. Gentle, playful, kind, curious, stubborn, and a bit of a troublemaker! We remember taking him back to the breeder to board him a few times when he was a puppy, and while she bred and boarded many dogs, she let us know that he was one of the few that won her over and got to sleep in her bedroom. He loved the beach. He loved chasing his ball in the yard, and when the weather didn’t allow it, we played inside. He chased a raccoon out of the house that one time and got a bit over his head in the fight, but came through with just a few scrapes. He was always anxious when we left him for he just wanted to be with his people. He leaves us on his 14th birthday. 4/17/02 – 4/17/16. Sweet dreams little buddy.

Boquete to Bocas and Home

We were off the grid for most of the remainder of the Panama trip, but here’s an after-the-fact recap of the rest of the trip.

We spent a couple more days in Boquete. We toured the Cafe Ruiz coffee plantation, learning plenty about the various processes for drying and roasting coffee beans, the ideal coffee growing conditions in Boquete, and Panama’s place in worldwide coffee production. They emphasize light and medium roasts at Cafe Ruiz. Delicious.

We took a car shuttle from Boquete to Bocas Del Toros on the Caribbean side. The shuttle actually dropped us in Almirante where we took a water taxi to Bocas followed by another water taxi to Al Natural eco resort on Bastimentos.

The resort can host something like 20 people, and we made great friends there. The family-style dinner each night brought together travelers from Costa Rica, America, Spain, Germany, France, Japan, and more. (I’m sure I’m forgetting some.) We spent the days hiking, snorkeling, finding dolphins, touring a local indigenous village (Salt Creek), and relaxing. There may have been some cocktails in there, and there were definitely some beautiful sunsets.

We returned to Panama City for a final day. We stayed in an amazing flat is Casco Viejo that was perfect except for the nearby church with loud church bells every 15 minutes for most of the day. We loaded up on ceviche, had a great meal at Manolo Caracol, and stayed in during a few amazing downpours.

Until next time!

Boquete Waterfalls

We took a short flight yesterday from Panama City to David, then took an 80 minute bus ride to Boquete. The bus was super crowded, cheap, and full of locals.

We grabbed a late lunch in town at Mike’s Global Grill and we lucked out: it was Mike’s birthday. Instead of the normal high price of $1.25, the beers were $.44 in honor of Mike’s 44th.

Boquete is a relatively small mountain town with a sizable US ex-pat community. I guess the AARP recommended it as a retirement spot some years ago. It is a lovely setting. Today we did a couple of waterfall hikes. Each took a couple of hours.

Panama Canal

We booked a boat tour of the Panama Canal and started with a 40 minute bus ride to Gamboa, a town on the Southern end of Gatun Lake. The lake was formed by damming the Chagres River, a river that flows to the Atlantic. At the time it was created, it was both the largest dam on the planet and the largest man-made lake. (Today, Lake Powell is larger.)

We headed south towards the Pacific (and Panama City). The canal crosses the Continental Divide at the Gaillard Cut, the largest excavation needed for the canal.

Gatun Lake is 85 feet above sea level, and there are three locks in each direction to get to sea level. Each lock is 1000 feet long, 110 feet wide, and 39 1/2 feet deep. The largest vessels that can navigate the canal are basically the dimension of the locks with all of two feet of clearance on each side. Such vessels are called Panamax. Here’s such a vessel in the first lock heading to the Pacific.

Each lock holds 26 million gallons of water yet takes just 8 minutes to fill or empty. Here’s our boat in the first lock before the lock empties.

Here we are ~30 feet lower after the lock has emptied.

The canal operates 24×7 and completes an average of 42 transits a day. An average transit takes 8-10 hours; a transit around the Cape takes ~22 days. Panamax-size ships can only fit one at a time through the Gaillard Cut, so there’s a daily schedule to manage traffic. Each vessel is boarded by a Canal Captain at the start of transit who navigates the vessel through the entire canal. Large vessels are also required to be escorted by tug boats. An engine failure at the wrong time could be catastrophic – running aground could close the canal.

The Bridge of Americas at the Pacific entrance is one of two bridges across the canal (the other was pictured at the Continental Divide).

More canal info:

  • 35% of commercial boats in operation are too big for the canal. A second set of locks is set to open in 2016. These will be 1400 feet long, 180 feet wide, and 50 feet deep. The expansion cost has passed $5B.
  • The canal employs 9000 people full-time.
  • Transit is generally first come, first serve. Today, the wait to transit is ~24 hours.
  • The minimum fee to use the canal is $3k. Our 120 foot boat was $4k. A typical Panamax boat is $120k. It was noted, though, that boats that size use ~$100k in fuel each day, so it’s very economical to use the canal. The largest fees go to cruise ships and can be more than $400k. Fees are based on size and cargo; passengers command a premium fee.
  • The 3-mile causeway built at the Pacific entrance to the canal used about 10% of the material excavated for the canal.
  • The original canal proposed by the French was a sea-level canal. Such a canal, however, would not be commercially viable. At the canal location, the Atlantic has tides of just 1 to 2 feet while the Pacific has tides up to 20 feet. This would have created dangerous currents.

Panama City Day 2

We headed to El Parque Metropolitano on Friday morning. It’s an urban park with a few simple hikes that promised views of the city and the canal. We hiked 45 minutes to the viewpoint and had a view of the city but couldn’t see the canal.

Lunch called for a visit to El Mercado de Mariscos – the fish market. Lots of fish!

Yes, of course we got ceviche!

We spent the afternoon walking southeast along the Pacific waterfront and exploring the downtown neighborhood. We grabbed some Italian before heading back to our neighborhood for the evening.

Panama City Day 1

We flew to Panama City via Dallas and Miami on Wednesday, arriving a bit past 10p local time. It wasn’t too hard to fall asleep on Eastern time since we’d gotten up at 4a for an early departure from Portland.

We’re staying near the Pacific entrance to the canal. There’s a 5k causeway that was constructed to connect the mainland to a few small islands and create a harbor (and calm water) at the entrance to the canal. We walked to the end of the causeway. We could see a bunch of huge ships lined up to enter the canal, but only saw a couple go in. No doubt there’s a lot of logistics on who gets to go in and when.

We grabbed some lunch – ceviche, empanadas and camorones (shrimp), tried a few of the local brews (Atlas and Panamá), then took a cab over to El Casco Antiguo.

El Casco Antiguo was built from 1673 after the original site of Panama City (a few kilometers east) was destroyed. The architecture is European; it feels like the French Quarter in New Orleans. We started in La Plaza de Francia.

We spent the afternoon walking the streets and poking our heads in a few shops. We checked out El Museo del Canal. It was entirely in Spanish! Fortunately, Leena minored in Spanish and I took cuatro años in high school, so we managed to put together most of the story. We actually just missed the 100-year anniversary of its opening (August 1914). To summarize a bit… The French started the project, but abandoned it – the project was costing too much in both money and lives. The US took another 10 years to finish the canal. Even today, it would take a monumental engineering effort, so it’s remarkable that it was completed a century ago. We also learned about some of the political history, including US military bases. The ownership by the US and lack of revenue for Panama from the canal boiled over in the late 60s in riots that numbers more than 250,000 people. Jimmy Carter eventually signed a renegotiated treaty that did in fact hand over control of the canal to Panama in 1999. Panama holds Carter in high regard for this; the act was described as an act of political suicide.

El Casco Antiguo is situated on a peninsula and looks across at the modern downtown. Panama City is the largest city in Central America with over 1 million residents.

Random sighting: a guy was riding his skateboard while being towed along by his dog – a beagle! Oh, hey, it’s also really hot and humid here!

The long trip home

The short version: We’re home!

The long version: It wasn’t exactly according to plan…

We were scheduled to depart Joburg at 7:15p on Wednesday with stops in Paris, Houston and Seattle before finally reaching Portland at 10:14p on Thursday. One minute shy of 36 hours…

Our flight to Paris was delayed. In classic airline fashion, we all got strung along with the delay being 60 to 90 more minutes the entire time. At about 11:30p, they announced that since we wouldn’t depart by midnight, the crew was required to get 12 hours rest. We were also told that all hotels were full and that Air France would not be providing accommodations for the night. But they would give us snacks and water and blankets. We were expected to stay in the terminal. This caused a minor uproar – though honestly not as bad as I thought it would be. Some travelers quickly discovered that on a weekday there were plenty of hotel rooms available. Travelers were advised not to leave, but if they insisted, they would get any bags off the plane. Hotel room reimbursement was not promised; it would have to be pursued through Air France.

We got busy on the phone with both Alaska Airline (we’d booked the trip on miles through them) and Air France. By midnight it was clear that we would miss our connection to Houston and we wanted to get rebooked as soon as possible (and not have to wait in line among several hundred travelers with similar problems). Alaska said that Air France needed to rebook us since they were the delayed flight. Air France said that Alaska had to rebook us since they had booked the trip. Nice.

I finally found an Air France agent at the gate who was willing and able to help. She found a flight from Paris to Atlanta and a connection on to Portland that would get in at 9:30p – 44 minutes earlier than the original itinerary. She secured seats but could not officially book it until our flight was in the air and scheduled to get in with enough time for the connection.

Finally we got word that we would be boarding a bit after 1a. They must have gotten a replacement crew. The agent confirmed that she would book our seats once we were in the air and that we would just need to pick up boarding passes at the Transfer desk in Paris. We sat on the tarmac for a while and didn’t take off until a bit after 2a. We weren’t sure if that left enough time for the connection.

We landed in Paris and rushed to get to the Transfer desk to try and get as near to the front of the line as possible. There were three agents working with five open stations. Air France, if you have an Airbus380 with a capacity of 530 (!) passengers that’s 7 hours late, and because it’s an 10+ hour flight you have almost HALF A DAY to know that hundreds of passengers with ruined itineraries will be at your desk when it lands, WHY DON’T YOU HAVE EVERY STATION COVERED? The flight to Atlanta was scheduled out at 1:35p. It was about 12:40p when we got in line and there were about 10 groups in front of us. Progress was s l o w. I jumped out of line to try a self service kiosk. Leena stayed in line.

The first machine was super slow. But, it found us and confirmed we had seats on the flight to Atlanta. I need to print boarding passes. Because it’s an international flight, you have to scan your passport at the kiosk. I scan mine. It then says, sorry, you’ll have to go to the transfer desk.

I try another machine. This one’s working fast, so that’s better. I go through the same steps. One of the screens says to proceed to the gate for a boarding pass. I’m skeptical that I can get through security without a boarding pass. I get through the passport check successfully, but I need Leena’s passport. I wave her out of line, but then realize this is a bad idea so I wave her back in. I run over and get her passport. I scan hers, but it kicks me out as before.

I try again. And again. Now it’s not even letting me to the passport scanning step. I stop an Air France agent. She says I have to start by putting in my e-ticket number (instead of scanning my passport). She leaves before the kiosk comes back that it can’t find my ticket number. (I’d guess this is because we’ve been rebooked and therefore have a new number.) It’s now 12:55p. The line Leena is in has literally moved up by one person (NICE JOB AIR FRANCE). There are probably 100 people in line behind us. What a mess.

I’m not even sure why, but I try a third machine. I take a picture on my phone of the screen that says to proceed to the gate for a boarding pass. Perhaps security will let us through with that? And then… it takes my passport scan. It takes Leena’s. I think I have it, but I get an error: they can’t print our boarding passes from Atlanta to Portland. Ah!!! I don’t care! I’ll do that in Atlanta! But on this screen there’s a back button. I hit it. And instead of going back to the previous screen, it goes to a screen with an option to print boarding passes. It’s too good to be true. I hit the button. They print. Amazing. It’s a bit after 1p. I scurry back over to Leena waving the boarding passes and she jumps out of line (that still has not moved). Other travelers are amazed (or, I want to think that they must have been).

We get through security and get to the gate just as the end of the boarding line is going through. Leena notices that the boarding passes say “Premium Economy”. I dismiss this as propaganda: they’re trying to make us feel better about their economy class by calling it premium. The gate agent scans our boarding passes and tells us that they’re not right. I have no idea what was wrong with them, but they were good enough to get us to the gate. (And I highly doubt we could have gotten through security without them.) They then print new boarding passes on the spot, including a pair for Atlanta to Portland.

As we board the plane, we learn that Premium Economy is a real thing. Wider seat. More recline. More legroom. Economy was full so they had to upgrade us. Totally awesome.

In Atlanta, we have to retrieve my bag, clear customs, and recheck the bag. The bag doesn’t come. It missed the connection in Paris. No worries though, it’s really just laundry waiting to happen. The flight to Portland is brutal: we’re 30+ hours in, we’re in the second to last row, and for some reason I think everyone on the flight had to visit the bathroom twice and bump me on the way by. Most of the time I had people crowding me from the aisle as they waited for the bathroom. But we make it.

Milo was so awesome when we got home. He went from asleep to bewildered to super excited in about a minute. So much fun. The bag was delivered a day later with more tags on it than you can imagine. Hopefully the long post on the air travel roller coaster wasn’t too boring!

Soweto

We flew from Cape Town to Johannesburg on Tuesday. Our flight home was scheduled for a 7p departure on Wednesday. We did a half-day tour of Soweto.

I knew Soweto was short for South Western Townships, but learned that it was also shorthand for “So Where to Go?” since many of its inhabitants moved there after being evicted from their homes by the apartheid government starting in the late 40s. Many came from Sophiatown.

There’s lot of history in Soweto. The African National Congress (ANC) drafted the Freedom Charter there in 1955. In brief:

1. The People Shall Govern!
2. All National Groups Shall have Equal Rights!
3. The People Shall Share in the Country’s Wealth!
4. The Land Shall be Shared Among Those Who Work It!
5. All Shall be Equal Before the Law!
6. All Shall Enjoy Equal Human Rights!
7. The Shall be Work and Security!
8. The Doors of Learning and Culture Shall be Opened!
9. There Shall be Houses, Security and Comfort!
10. There Shall be Peace and Friendship!

The charter is commemorated with a monument with the text inside etched in concrete.

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We had half an hour (not nearly enough time) at the Hector Pieterson museum. Pieterson was one of the first youth killed in the Soweto uprising in 1976 and was captured in an iconic photo.

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We also toured one of the slums. It’s difficult to express all the thoughts and feelings that you go through. You learn that even though the government has built housing nearby with electricity and water, residents can’t afford to move there because they would have to pay for the utilities. Is crime a problem? No. They have mob rule, which is to say they collectively enforce their own security. Drugs are a problem. Education is a problem. The biggest problem is opportunity. Unemployment is around 75%. Our tour guide was probably in his early 20s and spent his time (outside of tours) running a center for youth focused on education. Someone in the group asked a brave question: Did the residents mind groups of “rich white people” like ours touring their slum? (We weren’t all white, but predominantly so.) He replied no. He said that the people that go on tours help raise awareness and are all very generous to them. He then asked a great question back to the group: What motivated you to see this?

Our guide outside his home.

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We got a taste of the local beer at a shabeen. It’s a bit different – something like a combination of milk and beer. It has a sour taste like beer combined with plain yogurt. You can see the milky consistency in the second shot.

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We closed the tour with a brief stop at Soccer City Stadium, the main stadium for the recent World Cup and the largest stadium in Africa. The design is based on a calabash, which is the style of pot that we drank beer from.

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